部门的农业、食品和资源经济学食品安全政策,研究创新实验室能力和影响力bob体育登录

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气候冲击,特别是干旱造成严重不利影响在埃塞俄比亚农村家庭福利。直接回应这样的冲击,弹性和相关活动成为国家重点发展议程。在这种背景下,我们检查气候冲击和家庭消费之间的关系,然后评估家庭弹性如何影响这种关系。结合极端气候和埃塞俄比亚社会经济调查的历史观测数据集,我们发现短期和长期干旱显著降低消费,这种关系是由弹性。我们看的韧性指标可能调解的影响干旱消费意识到或概率措施理解与承受能力或者从干旱很快恢复。我们重新架构弹性能力的方法和弹性规范性条件方法,反映了两种不同的推断韧性的方法。在弹性能力方法,我们作为因变量和交互模式实现消费条款干旱和假设弹性指标之间的联合解释变量。从我们假设弹性指标,我们发现一些指标与衰减干旱冲击的负面影响在意识到家庭消费。这些包括财富指数、非正式的转移,和正式转让指标。弹性的规范性条件方法,我们模型概率相同家庭消费作为一个因变量和交互条款和找到收入多元化,牲畜多样化,和农业资产指标。 This study has important implications for both research and policy. The adverse effects of droughts on consumption inform the investment need and policy design around resilience. The resilience indicators associated with attenuating the adverse effects of drought shock on realized and probabilistic consumption has also important implications. First, the nexus between drought and consumption via specific resilience indicators associated with attenuating the adverse effect of drought on consumption informs policy design around these indicators. Second, our interest variable framing to identify the specific resilience indicators associated with attenuating the adverse effects of drought on both realized and probabilistic household consumption provides insight to bridge the resilience as capacity and resilience as a normative condition approaches classic debate with the question of whether resilience is a right-hand or left-hand side variable.